"It's a war of ideologies,Their's is ghazwa, ours humanity." -Tarek Fateh
With statistics , lets evaluate how much the Islamic Republic of Pakistan is scrutinized for using terror as state policy:
Pakistan received:
- 33-billion $ in 10 years as aid from US
- Of which foreign military finance(FMF) is 3.8 billion $ , counter-insurgency fund 2.3 billion $ and non-proliferation fund of .17 billion $
- Other Western nations and China gave 4.15 billion $ as aid
- The Asian Development Bank (ADB) gave 4.4 billion $ between 2009 -2012
- The world Bank bailed out Pakistan with 5 billion $ in recent years
- IMF has assisted Pakistan with 11.2 billion $ in 6 years
- Saudi-Arabia, Pakistan's patron and brother in arms has many times deferred oil payments, provided for oil at crucial times and funded 1.5 billion $ as bailout in 2014
Pakistan has got well over 50 billion $ for its various schemes and it uses much greater than its 10 billion $ military budget on its defense establishment. This is easy - u spend on my food and I will have money left for weapons. This is not how sanctions work. Compare this to India's only 13 billion $ available for purchases every year. No doubt the difference of military might is not as much as the difference of economic might.
Moreover Pakistan knows it s not military but public hate for India which is the key- it uses splendidly on Islamist fundamentalists to mold public opinion. Terror strikes on India eliminates our peace lovers and India's rant gives Pakistan space to terrorize India in Pakistani eyes.This eliminates any demand for trade with India or good people to people relations.
Now let's check US Sanctions on Iran:
Moreover Pakistan knows it s not military but public hate for India which is the key- it uses splendidly on Islamist fundamentalists to mold public opinion. Terror strikes on India eliminates our peace lovers and India's rant gives Pakistan space to terrorize India in Pakistani eyes.This eliminates any demand for trade with India or good people to people relations.
Now let's check US Sanctions on Iran:
- denial of Export-Import Bank assistance;
- denial of export licenses for exports to the violating company;
- prohibition on loans or credits from U.S. financial institutions of over $10 million in any 12-month period;
- prohibition on designation as a primary dealer for U.S. government debt instruments;
- prohibition on serving as an agent of the United States or as a repository for U.S. government funds;
- denial of U.S. government procurement opportunities (consistent with WTO obligations);
- ban on all or some imports of the violating company.
It's foolhardy to believe that any country can be pressurized by just rhetoric, Stern words and presidential advises. It's like saying "u stop funding terror or I will start thinking of putting economic sanctions". Pakistan threatens the peace of mankind due to nuclear blackmail & proliferation. It has time and again used itself as a military commander of powerful nations to domiante in Gulf and in turn bargain surprisingly well by being an ally. Pakistan is officially an US ally and it is the Chinese window to dominance in gulf. So India will be foolish to look at US and Chinese pressure to bully Pakistan.
The very nature of Pakistan establishment is superiority through military and intelligence. There is no way US will have any supply lines and intelligence assets without Pakistan's land routes and bases. India has to stand its way out by other means and taking into account the geography - India has to fulfill US interests to bargain economic sanctions on Pakistan.(without which Pakistan can never be tamed of its heinous intentions and propaganda): The US interests are:
- Stabilizing Afghanistan
- Iran's goodwill and non-nuclear Iran
- A good access to Afghanistan and Iraq
- Sufficient govt influence in gulf nations
The way ahead:
While India can use military assistance fiercely in Afghanistan, it will need our people's iron will and Western financial support in Afghanistan. India should use Afghanistan and Iran like 2 regional Allies with critical military agreements -much of which will have to be newly written and SOP's prepared or updated.
India should use its good influence in Iran to mediate between Iran and US. India is the only country which can be a vantage point to pull-down US rigidity on Iran and also persuade Iran to follow the recently concluded Nuclear deal. India also has to vouch for no sanctions on Iran while persuade Iran to open up its relations with US including allowing US assets into Afghanistan.
India has to work with US on military coalition to focus more on gulf rather than in South-China Sea. Enraging China will only lead to giving Pakistan a second Patron in arms. China can arm Pakistan enough to keep our 5 strike divisions forever engaged on Western front. This will be a grave mistake as China can't go to war with India - China knows it can't match tensions on both sides + dominate sea lanes. It will be walking into US trap willingly. Arming Pakistan and supporting it stealthily to continue terror attacks is the obvious way and so will India remain occupied with Pakistan.
Saudi-Arabia, UAE, China and Turkey will always support Pakistan silently and never let it collapse or look feeble - due to the Islamic interests. And also Pakistan does their job of dirty intelligence in the area. Pakistan has lost so much integrity that for few dollars it sells intelligence and rents access to its bases. There are speculations that Pakistan has standing army platoons at Saudi-Arabia and may well have given them Nuclear access.
US can't be expected to slap Pakistan with sanctions unless it has alternatives to Accessing Afghanistan with military assets , good full-fledged relations with Iran and active intelligence from other source than ISI.
So India, its good we keep pressuring Pakistan but it is more important to replace the role Pakistan plays for others as a secondary by using our assets, influence and military.
Only by military diplomacy, can Pakistan be suppressed to levels of public rebellion and Pakistan can be saved from being the Doom of South-Asia.
I hope this was helpful!
Jai-Hind!!!
So India, its good we keep pressuring Pakistan but it is more important to replace the role Pakistan plays for others as a secondary by using our assets, influence and military.
Only by military diplomacy, can Pakistan be suppressed to levels of public rebellion and Pakistan can be saved from being the Doom of South-Asia.
I hope this was helpful!
Jai-Hind!!!
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